3 eternal truths in mobile marketing despite measurement and privacy changes, with Tinuiti’s Liz Emery

What will always be true about mobile marketing and marketing measurement, even in a time of massive change from iOS, Android, Facebook, and the entire mobile marketing ecosystem?

Find out in the latest Growth Masterminds video podcast, with Tinuiti’s Liz Emery, in a wide-ranging conversation about content fortresses, incrementality, attribution, and the future of mobile marketing measurement. We also chat about SKAdNetwork, Facebook AMM deprecation, why there are so many mergers and acquisitions in mobile marketing, and more.

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As much as everything is in a constant state flux in mobile marketing (“change is constant in our industry,” Emery says) there are some things that are lasting principles for success.

 

1. Owned media: always important

Owned media will never go out of style, says Emery.

“The investment in owned has to increase and it has to be used properly … and I think that’s going to stay true forever.”

– Liz Emery

There’s a reason companies have blogs. There’s a reason legendary venture capital firm Andreesen Horowitz started its own standalone media property. And there’s a reason why battle games are always trying to get you to share video of your recent gameplay.

That’s especially true for brands that are promoting their mobile apps as a means of accessing the brand experience. (And more and more mobile-first companies are intentional brands in their own right.)

Owned media experiences cannot be taken away. Platforms can’t change the rules of what you post there, or how people can access them. And while of course there’s both a start-up and ongoing cost of ownership, you don’t have to pay to play every time you create something to reach out to people.

One reason this is critical?

Last week when I chatted with Pearl Servat, chief brand officer for Verizon’s mobile challenger brand Visible, she said that you need “more than five” brand impressions before people even consider becoming a customer. Having your first brand impression being paid might be necessary, but it’s an expensive way to “generate awareness,” in the traditional brand marketer terminology. Since (in my opinion) all brand marketing is performance marketing and all performance marketing is brand marketing, why not let owned media contribute at least some of those impressions?

Owned media can help you get those five quicker.

And maybe 10, or 20. Done right, more is indeed more.

 

2. Lifecycle marketing: increasingly important

Mobile marketers are not stupid. Over the past five years they have increasingly known that it’s not about top-line install growth: it’s about bottom-line DAU and revenue growth.

New users are great.

Retained users and increased revenue is better.

But … there are metrics. There are expectations. And there are directives from above for growth that user acquisition managers just must take into account, as we detailed recently in our post about a day in the life of a UA manager. That’s a largely crowd-sourced post, and it shows that often growth marketers engage in behavior that is required tactically for internal political reasons — or perhaps fundraising pitch deck reasons — but is not smart strategically for long-term profitable growth.

In an age of scarcer data, good old-fashioned lifecycle marketing (call it mobile user engagement, or user retention if you wish) is increasingly important. That includes live ops: building and extending your in-app experience no matter whether you’re a game or a fintech app or a mobile commerce store. It also includes creating more points of connection with your users and customers.

“It costs more to bring a new user in than to retain the users you have … no matter what kind of privacy things happen, when someone gets to your experience and opts in there in your experience, they said: “Here’s my email” … and you can reach them in the right ways.”

– Liz Emery

That’s retention marketing, and it’s also smart marketing.

One reason: it’s taking a single-platform userand making a multi-platform user or customer. In other words, all you had before was a user in an app. Now you’ve got an email address, meaning you can reach that person via an owned platform (ooohhh …. 1 + 1 = 3) and you can probably leverage that into a web user or customer, if that’s appropriate for your brand.

You can also, potentially, take that customer with you if you would ever need to prioritize different platforms.

3. And social/search/display never dies

Platforms come and go. But people have been social for essentially forever, and even in the hazy metaverse futures of Ready Player One IRL, they will still be social.

They’ll also need search, because they will still have wants, and there will be an even greater multiplicity of things/experiences/whatever in our digital omniverse to find and obtain. And as long as there are things to watch or experience, there will be sponsorship opportunities and display opportunities.

“I don’t see any investment in social going away. I don’t see any investment in search going away or in display going away because the reality is that … there are more people on their phones more often for more time … and a lot of the time they’re consuming content. So I just don’t see investment going away on these channels.”

– Liz Emery

What she does see, however, is more fluidity in budgets as the world — digital and real — gets more complex. And as we develop newer, more flexible, and hopefully both more nuanced and more robust ways of doing attribution.

 

But wait, there’s more …

This is a pretty packed Growth Masterminds episode, since we also chatted about iOS 14.5, SKAdNetwork, Facebook AMM (Advanced Mobile Measurement) deprecation, opportunities on Android vs iOS, first-party data, and the recent mergers and acquisitions frenzy in the mobile ecosystem.

And we share a few laughs.

Subscribe to our podcast. I think you’ll enjoy it:

A day in the life of a user acquisition manager

Note: this is a crowdsourced article on life as a user acquisition manager. Thanks to Claire Rozain at Gameloft, Nebo Radovic at Zynga, Eric Seufert at Mobile Dev Memo, Thomas Petit at almost everywhere, and many others who contributed anonymously. (If you did, let me know so I can credit you!)

What does a day in the life of a mobile user acquisition manager look like?

Mobile user acquisition managers make from $75,000 to $150,000. And up, of course: the best can make huge sums. They’re among the busiest of mobile professionals, always working on multiple campaigns, juggling dozens of datasets, making both data-driven and gut-based decisions, and answering questions from managers about why their apps aren’t growing fast enough. They run CPI campaigns, PPC campaigns, CPE campaigns. They calculate LTV and ROAS. They juggle ad partners, test hundreds of pieces of creative, and work closely with product and finance and data scientists.

In the course of all this work, user acquisition managers also spend millions of dollars annually in massive budgets that need, need, need to achieve ROI. So it can be a pretty stressful life, especially when your whole world changes as Apple or Google or Facebook announce major changes to the pillars that support your career.

I thought we’d ask dozens of UA managers to share a day in the fictitious life of a completely fictitious user acquisition manager, so I shared a link to a fully-open publicly-editable Google doc on Twitter. This is the result.

Important note:
All resemblance to your life and work … is completely coincidental. Of course.

 

A day in the life of a user acquisition manager

3AM: not sleeping
Roll over. Worry drowsily about those 3 campaigns that are totally sucking.

4AM: still not sleeping
Wake up thinking I messed up some budget. Grab the phone to check. Sigh with relief. Go back to sleep.

5AM: why did I buy a cat?
Wake up again. Cat on face, demanding food. Roll over and try to go back to sleep.

6AM: geos, geos, geos
Wake up to a thought: “Did I really put the Spanish text in the German campaign … or was it just a bad dream?” Pretty sure it was just a dream.

7AM: ROI positive?
Sit up. Reach for the phone to check overnight performance. Swear quietly when I see that now 5 campaigns are not trending ROI-positive, and two others are on the edge. Consolation prize: one is killing it. I need coffee.

8AM: actually working now
Open my laptop in my home office, AKA kitchen table. Review performance on all 47 current campaigns with 13 different partners. Feel like a hero when I see that 29 of them are doing well, and 7 are rock stars. Feel like a zero when I see I’m in serious danger of losing money on 7 campaigns, and that another 4 are complete, utter, horrific, nuclear wastelands.

Realize with a sinking feeling that Bob in Finance warned me that the partner I was using for 2 of them was not great quality, but that I went ahead and tried them anyway. Mentally calculate how many thousands of dollars I’m going to lose.

8:30AM: prep time
Make notes for a team meeting in an hour. Look for a way to describe complete dogs of campaigns as cute puppies that have just not quite fulfilled their potential.

9AM: HR wants something. again.
Check email. Give HR some information that they desperately need without which I won’t get paid.

9:15AM: competitive research, AKA wasting time
Play a competitor’s game, secretly hoping it sucks. Experience brief jolts of elation for every minor issue I encounter, but a lasting pall of depression when I realize it’s actually pretty good, it seems busy in the battle/team sections, and they apparently have unlimited budget for paid growth.

9:30AM: team meeting
Team meeting on Zoom. Pretend to be interested in Jodi’s new hamster. Secretly gloat that Sascha has at least one more non-performing campaign than me. Share my results, highlighting the positives.

10AM: break
Make coffee and take a second to breathe.

10:30AM: panic
Discover our new soft-launched game was immediately copycatted. Panic, then calm down. Call a meeting to accelerate our full launch before the copycat.

11AM: emails are for ignoring, right?
Reply to some emails, ignore some more. After all, if they want something badly they’ll follow up. Plus ‘Inbox 0’ is such a beautiful if only theoretical concept.

12PM: another meeting
Listen to engineering and product whining about the new insane schedule, thanks to the copycatters. Lie and tell them I’m so sorry. Reality: it is what it is.

1:30PM: dentist appointment
Apparently my wisdom teeth need to come out next week. Take painkillers and get back to work.

2:15PM: hungry
Uh oh, forgot to eat lunch. Good for the diet, I guess.

2:30PM: work work work
Ugh … new creatives again! Just got new creatives yesterday. Now I need to swap out all the creatives and update the tracking links again, because SOMEBODY saw an ad they liked last night while watching Hulu … I swear they must think I can snap my fingers and make it happen. Where are those painkillers?

3:30PM: fine I’ll listen
Sit through a demo with one of the 14 DSPs that flood my LinkedIn inbox daily.

4PM: more market research, AKA wasting time
Watching Dr Disrespect killing it on Fortnite … hmmm he can easily help us reach those download goals … how much do I have left in our 2021 budget?

5PM: beer me
The sound of a beer bottle being opened can be heard in the background.

7PM: wallow in misery
Realization sinks in that I actually completed almost nothing that I set out to do at the start of the day.

10PM: panic
VP Growth is checking stats for some nice bedtime reading and notices my overall ROAS dropped 0.0001%. Now I need to do a full list of all changes made last week by 6AM tomorrow.

11PM: relax, panic, relax
Relax: remember that everything is automated and I did nothing. Panic: why do they even need me anymore? Relax. The automated system wasted $125K last month thanks to a configuration error.

11:28PM: make a mistake
Knowing it’s stupid at this time of day, I open an email from CEO. It’s long, but essentially: the company wants to grow! So let’s put some money there! How difficult could it be? Just put the money there! Get more traffic and that’s it! Starting thinking about which high-fraud networks to use to bump the numbers next month. Also start planning that goat cheese e-commerce startup idea I’ve been dreaming about for the last 5 years.

12PM: roll over
Go back to sleep. I’ve got a long day tomorrow.

 

Accurate? You have our condolences

Life in the tech industry is not easy. Life in mobile growth is even harder. Most user acquisition managers, of course, don’t have it this tough. But pretty much all of them, I think, can see some elements of their own realities in this really bad horrible no good day, even if you work for one of the best companies in the mobile app space.

Singular can probably make your life a little bit easier.

Book a meeting. Have a chat. Let us show you how Singular can make data your ally, not your enemy. And maybe even buy you a coffee occasionally.

4 key changes from Google on app privacy and data, including a new ‘IDFV’ for Android

An IDFV on Android? Child and family protections? Limitations on the use of permanent device identifiers? App privacy nutrition labels? And, an Ads Personalization off switch that, like Limit Ad Tracking in the olden days of iOS 13, actually zeroes out your advertising identifier?

Yep.

Well, sort of.

Google just announced a bevy of safety and security updates that apps have 30 days to comply with or be at risk of some sort of unspecified sanction. Several of them we knew about or were rumored, but at least a couple of them are new and interesting.

 

1. Android’s limit ad tracking now actually limits ad tracking

We knew this one and reported on it recently. Google’s Ad Personalization on-off toggle — its version of Apple’s old Limit Ad Tracking — has until now essentially relied on the honor system. Toggling ad personalization off didn’t actually reset the identifier.

As I wrote a month ago:

In the past, Google has essentially relied on the honor system: if an Android owner opts out of ads personalization, the advertising identifier was still available if an adtech vendor asked for it.

The reason was simple: the Android ad identifier, AAID/GAID, is also used for analytics, fraud detection, attribution, and more. But it was still odd. Now, toggling personalization off will set the GAID to a string of zeroes. Meaning that you can’t use it, even if you wanted to. (By the way, we checked: this will only impact about 2% of devices globally.)

That, of course, leaves a gap. So a month ago Google promised a new identifier, and now it has delivered on that promise: App Set ID.

 

2. App set ID: the new Android IDFV?

We’re not saying it’s the IDFV, but the new Android device identifier App Set ID bears a remarkable resemblance to the IDFV. It’s an identifier that will be common across all apps installed by a user from the same publisher. And it’s intended to be used for non-ad-based insights from the same developer.

As Google says:

For use cases such as analytics or fraud prevention on a given device, you may need to correlate usage or actions across a set of apps owned by your organization. Google Play services offers a privacy-friendly option called app set ID.

It won’t work on sideloaded apps or apps from another app market or store. It requires Google Play services on the device, and it requires a developer account that Google Play services recognizes. It’s long-lived but not permanent: it will be reset by a factory reset of the device, and if it hasn’t been accessed in 13 months it will go poof.

But don’t get too many ideas:

App set ID cannot be used for ads personalization or ads measurement.

Google is explicitly not allowing this to be used for advertising. This is simply for analytics, fraud prevention, and — I presume — any other non-infringing use cases publishers can dream up. Note: Google says you cannot connect this with the Android Ad ID (AAID/GAID), and you cannot connect it to “any personal and sensitive data for advertising purposes.”

Also, if you use Ad Set ID, you’re on your own in terms of legalities in whatever jurisdiction you operate. Google says:

The collection and use of the app set ID and commitment to these terms must be disclosed to users in a legally adequate privacy notification, including your privacy policy. You must obtain users’ legally valid consent where required.

That might put a bit of a damper on any excitement around a new identifier on Android.

 

3. Privacy nutrition labels for Android, sort of, and other big privacy changes

Apple recently added privacy “nutrition labels” for apps which display in their App Store preview. Google is about to follow suit.

While there’s no complete vision on how the data will be used, Google is now asking all developers to provide information about what data their apps collect:

Developers must provide accurate information related to personal or sensitive user data their apps collect, use, or share.

All apps must have a privacy policy, and this data will go into a new data privacy and security section. The new section on Google Play will showcase each app’s safety, Google says. When this comes is uncertain, but “ultimately, all Google Play store apps will be required to share information in the safety section.”

Google’s new privacy and data policies won’t only impact app listings. Disclosures and consent must be in-app, not just in app descriptions or on a website, and must be prominent: visible in ordinary usage of the app and not buried in a settings screen, Google says, adding that you “may not access or collect any personal and sensitive data until the user consents.”

In addition, apps in fintech, payments, and security categories have additional restrictions. Apps that collect device information like IMEI (International Mobile Equipment Identity) or IMSI (international mobile subscriber identity) must be disclosed, and generally may not be linked to other identifiers.

 

4. Kids & family identifier restrictions

Finally, if your app is for children, there are some new rules that you need to follow. Most important: only approved SDKs may be added to your app:

Your app must not include an SDK that is not approved for use in child-directed services.

Important note: Singular has recently partnered with Kidoz to provide kid-safe attribution. We chatted with Eldad Ben Tora, the co-CEO of Kidoz, about the implications.

There are a few implications here:

First off, tracking children using an ad ID is not permitted. But secondly, Google mentions people with “unknown ages,” which would seem to indicate that if you don’t know how old a user is, you need to use only Google Play certified ad SDKs to display ads to those users.

In addition, ads cannot involve interest-based targeting based on browsing behavior, can’t be retargeted/remarketed, must be appropriate for children, must follow Google’s family ads formats, and must — as usual — comply with all local regulations.

 

This is a lot, but there’s more

There’s likely a lot of work to do for app publishers here, including age verification and rework on what IDs or data you do or do not collect.

There is more, such as a ban on loading interpreted languages like JavaScript at runtime, new restrictions on “sugar dating” apps, and new disclosure requirement on finance and loan apps. Google is also banning deceptive ads, sexually explicit ads, unsolicited SMS ads, and fraudulent ways of direction users to apps on Google Play without their direct intent and action.

Few if any legit publishers would use any growth tactics like these, but in any case they are no explicitly prohibited.

Many publishers have been working hard on new privacy requirements on the iOS side. Now Google has provided some for the Android side.

Just in case you were getting bored.

Apple just killed (some) app uninstall tracking in iOS 15

Uninstall tracking has been valuable for mobile app developers and marketers for years. Knowing that someone has uninstalled your app — and having some idea of when — can give you clues on what to improve in the future. And maybe, insight on changes that you’ve made that people don’t like.

Some of that is going away soon in iOS 15.

Apple just made an update to iOS 15 beta 4 that will disallow the mechanism most mobile growth services use to measure uninstalls: background pushes.

Background push notifications with empty payloads never show up on a user’s device if your app is still present and installed, but they do verify the app’s installed status via the Apple Push Notification Service. Notifications on iOS don’t go directly from your servers to a user’s device: they go to a centralized Apple service and are then distributed to the device. That’s both a security and a usability feature for iOS, so iPhone and iPad owners don’t get blitzed with messages, and so that messages can be delivered to offline devices when they come back online. The Android equivalent is Google Cloud Messaging.

But Apple’s just made a privacy change: background pushes will only be delivered if the app has been used in the foreground in the past few weeks.

apple kills iOS 15 uninstall tracking

That will kill some uninstall tracking. It won’t kill all uninstall tracking.

If someone hasn’t used your app for an unspecified number of weeks, then uninstalls it, you won’t know that exact time. And, frankly, if your app is just dormant on a device and has not been used in weeks, an empty push will not work: you’ll have to send an actual notification. On the other hand, if someone is using your app, has a strong reaction to something in or about your app, and immediately deletes it, you still have a chance to catch that uninstall, record it, and (hopefully) learn from it.

Since most uninstalls happen very soon after an app is installed, often after the first use, this may not be a huge deal. And since you can still get data for the long-term user who has a this-app-sucks-I’m-deleting-it moment, you’ve still got access to perhaps the most important uninstall measurement you need.

In addition, whether someone’s fully uninstalled your app or is just completely not using it — often to the point where Apple’s relatively recent Offload Unused Apps feature, which auto-deletes unused apps, deletes your app — does it really matter?

 

offload unused apps iOS iPhone

 

The key point is: they’re not using your app. Sure, it’s easier to revive a lapsed user who still has your app installed, but how often does that happen to the point where they become engaged, retained, profitable users?

And one other thought: the absence of a response is kind of a response, isn’t it?

So if you sent a payloadless notification via Apple Push Notification Service and don’t get a response, that tells you something. It may not tell you that your app is completely uninstalled, but it certainly tells you very clearly that you have a lapsed user who has not even opened your app for weeks. While for some apps in some verticals, that’s fine (think a transit app for a vacationer who always goes to the south of France, and needs the train scheduling app only for one month every year), for most apps, that’s not a great indicator.

Which means mobile marketers can probably simply redefine what uninstall tracking is, and carry on.

And, of course, on Android, nothing has changed.

Marketing analytics grew 9,400% in a decade. Have we hit peak analytics?

Did we hit peak marketing analytics in 2021?

Maybe.

I am a big fan of Scott Brinker and his amazing, awesome, even frightening marketing technology landscape. Starting out in 2011 with just 150 logos, his martech landscape has grown to be the “Martech 5000” … even though it currently has over 8,097 companies in 49 different marketing technology categories. I guess you can’t rename it every time the world bubbles up more marketing analytics, social media, and salestech companies.

marketing analytics landscape

Brinker has run a number of marketing startups as CEO and CTO and is now VP Platform Ecosystem at Hubspot. (Talk about inventing your own perfect position!) He’s been asking whether we’ve hit peak martech yet since at least 2018-2019 and hearing louder and louder calls that marketing analytics and adtech consolidation is inevitable for at least four or five years now.

So asking this question in 2021 might be foolish.

But let’s look at the data, and then some of the market movement.

The data: martech and marketing analytics growth

Martech and marketing analytics have both grown massively and astonishingly over the past decade. Shockingly fast to shockingly large numbers, in fact. If we just look at Brinker’s martech landscape, we see a 5,300% increase in martech companies from 2011 to 2020:

martech-tools-growth-past-decade

It’s actually surprising to look at the very first marketing technology landscape from 2011. Mobile marketing literally had only nine logos, and AdMob and Localytics are the only two that I recognize from the list. There were three creative optimization companies — three! — and also three choices for personalization technologies. And yet there are some names peering out at us from the dim mists of the tech and marketing industry’s dusty, almost-forgotten past that are still massive and successful companies today: Kenshoo, Shopify, Salesforce, Hubspot.

But marketing analytics, a subset of marketing technology, has grown even faster than marketing tech as a whole.

In fact, it’s exploded 9,400% since 2011.

marketing-analytics-tools-growth

Now, a couple caveats on this data.

First of all, Brinker’s data is probably the best in the industry, but Scott would be the first to admit there are always more companies that he hasn’t seen, or haven’t raised their hand to be counted. Secondly, there isn’t one category in the Martech 5000 or any of its marketing technology landscape predecessors that is labeled “marketing analytics.” Instead, I’ve cobbled together these numbers from a variety of categories such as Business Intelligence, Data, Analytics, Marketing Data, Testing & Optimization, Predictive Analytics, Web and Mobile Analytics, and Marketing Automation. Not all of them appear every year, as the number of categories grows from 43 to 51 and then subsides back down to 49 over the decade, and the actual names of the categories change fairly significantly as our collective understanding of what marketing analytics and marketing technology evolved over time.

However, I think it’s directionally correct.

And actually, if you think about it, it’s actually undercounting reality.

As it stands the Martech 5000 has over 8,000 solutions in six uber-categories and 49 subcategories. But do you think there’s a Commerce & Sales app that doesn’t include some kind of marketing analytics function? Or a Social & Relationships tool that doesn’t reference growth, numbers, and likely activity from paid campaigns?

I tried hard to only keep solutions that are explicitly related to marketing analytics in the numbers above, but the truth is analytics are everywhere tools are. Especially when it comes to martech and adtech.

What does this mean? Is marketing analytics ripe for consolidation & aggregation?

It’s pretty tempting to say yes. And there’s data that suggests we are in a time of marketing analytics consolidation and aggregation.

As we recently wrote, Vungle has bought four companies in nine months and has its eye on more potential acquisitions. Digital Turbine bought Fyber and AdColony, Applovin bought Adjust, and there have been more billion-dollar mobile marketing acquisitions in this spring than in the past few years combined.

Emotionally it feels so as well.

One early reviewer of the 2015 martech landscape diagram said it gave her anxiety. Another called it terrifying. And Brinker’s been asking if the growth is sustainable for six years. But sheer mental terror at the sight of thousands of logos that we don’t recognize, representing an industry which we’re supposed to be experts in, revealing how much most of us didn’t have a clue existed, is not by itself reason to suspect we’ve hit peak martech, or peak marketing analytics.

More compelling, however, might be a role reversal. Marketers have long been accused of shiny object syndrome when acquiring new tech. That might not be so true anymore …

“Forget shiny object syndrome. Martech chases marketers more than the other way around.”

– Scott Brinker

But something else has happened that has shaken up the whole world of mobile marketing, which — by the way — in Venn diagram terms is much nearer to all of marketing tech today than it was a decade ago. All the channels — social, search, email, you name it — are getting subsumed into the Uber-channel: mobile.

Venn diagram marketing analytics mobile marketing

That something is broadly the privacy revolution and specifically iOS 14.5, which have conspired to make marketing measurement harder. And that makes consolidation competitively better as first-party data becomes the only data market players feel like they can fully rely on.

Crowded logo landscape, meet external existential force for amalgamation, mergers, unification, and Together Apes Strong.

So … does this all mean peak marketing analytics?

Probably not.

(Sorry if that’s a disappointment after this whole blog post.)

Consolidation? Sure? Continued acquisitions and mergers? You bet.

But let’s be real. The cost of doing a tech startup just keeps getting lower. A little bit of code, AWS or Google Cloud or Azure for deployment, some WordPress for a website, and you’re in business. APIs and SDKs bring in all the functionality you need; tools that you need to integrate to ingest client data make everything more integratable than at any point in software history.

And, we just had a massive market shock with Apple’s App Tracking Transparency in iOS 14.5. Which should kill off some of the old school tools. And which will in turn kick off a massive and renewed surge of innovation. Most of which will fail, of course. (I’m an angel investor, but I’m a realistic angel investor.) But some of which will do interesting things. And some others of which will be bought and rolled into bigger tools.

So I think innovation will continue. The pace may slow, and there will continue to be consolidation at the top of the food chain.

But there’s likely to continue to be ongoing innovation at the bottom as well. Times of great change and great uncertainty tend to be very fertile for disruptive startups.

Get the one mobile marketing analytics platform you need

While you’re here, book a chat with a Singular expert on the one mobile marketing and mobile performance analytics platform you need, with cost, revenue, ROI, attribution, ad monetization, deeplinking, and native connections to more platforms than anyone else.

(It’s Singular, of course.)

Book a chat here.

Fastest growing ad networks 2021, biggest hidden gems, and CPI, CTR, CPM benchmarks

Earlier this week Singular announced a new product: benchmarks. Never one to let an opportunity go to waste, I quickly started digging into the new feature for interesting observations. Which ad networks, for instance, are growing the fastest in 2021? Are there ad networks that are hidden gems that marketers should experiment with? And what’s happening recently with CPIs, CTRs, and CPMs?

Now it’s pretty easy to find out.

The new Singular benchmarks product gives mobile marketers insight into the macrotrends in their space as well as the specifics: what ad networks are growing, where spend is being directed, and where most of the industries’ app installs are happening. (And FYI: most spend and most installs are only loosely correlated. Some platforms that claim bigger numbers of installs capture lower percentages of spend.)

Marketers can also compare their ad spend with the industry at large, generating insights about how their spend follows or differs from their counterparts in other companies.

One of the things I wanted to look at: top growing ad networks.

 

Fastest growing ad networks

The top market share gaining ad networks for this year is a critical measure, because we’re at a unique juncture in mobile marketing. We are quite literally in probably the greatest period of upheaval in mobile marketing in a decade. We knew iOS 14.5 was a big deal, and we knew losing the IDFA was going to be a problem.

But I’m not sure we really viscerally understood how much of a disturbance in the force it was going to be.

As we shared last week, dollars are leaving iOS for Android, where (now) too much spend is chasing too few users, resulting in rising CPIs, declining ROI, and an increase in paid user acquisition supplanting organic growth.

So it’s a crazy market, which makes it all the more impressive when many of the top ad networks can continue to grow.

The top gainers as of July 2021 include:

  • Apple Search Ads
  • Digital Turbine
  • Liftoff
  • ironSource
  • Applovin
  • Vungle

And just to be clear, this is out of all potential media partners: SANs included.

 

fastest-growing-ad-networks-2021

 

Apple Search Ads? It’s pretty clear why ASA made this list.

Not only did Apple release a new ad placement at the top of search results in May, ASA has access to first-party on-platform Apple data for ad targeting — including but not limited to keywords and search data — that others simply don’t have. And Apple Search Ads has always been high quality and effective: it is, after all, right at the point of user decision and action.

So it was natural that ASA would grow post-iOS 14.5 and SKAdNetwork.

The other ad networks are interesting. Most of the big gainers have one thing in common: they were early adopters of SKAdNetwork technology. They leaned hard into the new methodology for deterministic advertising attribution on the iOS platform, prepared early, adjusted quickly as Apple changed timetables and added capabilities, and were the most prepared.

 

Biggest hidden gems

As I was looking at the benchmarks, a few things became apparent. The early winners of the upheaval, sure. But also some hidden gems that marketers should consider for additional spend.

Look: in all the change that is hitting mobile marketing right now, mobile growth specialists are throwing budgets around like crazy. There’s always been a percentage of top mobile user acquisition specialists that is reserved for experimentation and testing, but that’s grown significantly in the past few months. In fact, in our recent webinar 5 Ways to Drive Faster Growth for Gaming Apps, one growth leader suggested that while traditionally mobile marketers have reserved a small portion of their budgets for experimentation … now the entire budget is experimentation.

Gulp.

That sounds dangerous.

But here are a couple of opportunities to think about:

  • Bluestacks
  • Mistplay

Neither grew a huge amount in the early part of 2021, at least for Singular clients, but they’re both well-positioned to absorb new growth demand. As we mentioned earlier, money is moving to Android right now. Both of these players target Android … but they’re different than most ad networks. Each is an interesting and unique play on mobile user acquisition.

Where Bluestacks offers a desktop-based way to play Android games and a new cloud-centric gaming platform, Mistplay presents a loyalty program for mobile gamers: discover new games and earn rewards. Both are differentiated offerings, both ranked well on our most recent Singular ROI Index, and both are, IMHO, worth a shot.

Especially if you’re spraying your entire marketing budget around experimentally.

 

Benchmarks: CPI, CPM, CTR, and CVR

The new benchmarks tool also offers interesting insight around cost per install, CPM rates, click-through rates, and conversion rates.

I’m not going to share those in detail here, except for a few highlights. One reason: the benchmarking tool looks just enough at the past that not all of the recent industry changes — spend flowing to Android and bumping up costs there while depressing costs on iOS — are priced in yet.

But here’s a taste.

North America and Western Europe – Gaming
Outside of the biggest self-attributing networks, we’re seeing effective CPIs in the $2-4.50 range for mobile user acquisition costs on Android. The biggest SANs are in the $3-6 range.

For iOS? Add $2-4 to each range.

Hyper-casual, however, is generally under $0.50 and as low as 4-8 cents on some significant platforms for Android. For iOS: add 50 cents to a dollar.

Europe – Non-gaming
Android installs in Europe can be quite inexpensive. While there’s some spiking to almost $3, there are many opportunities to get sub-dollar installs in Europe on Android.

For iOS, while there’s still some chance of getting fairly cheap installs, costs spike higher, of course.

South Asia – Gaming
Some of the midsize ad networks offer outstanding values here with media eCPI in the single-digit pennies. And while the big SANs spike up to multiples of that, they also average out well under $1 per install for both Android and iOS.

The majority of the spend here, of course, is on Android.

 

And the future of mobile user acquisition on iOS?

We’ll update these insights in a month or two.

But a few things are already obvious about the flight from paid user acquisition activity from iOS to Android:

  • iOS isn’t going away
  • Apple’s actually increasing market share in the U.S., according to TechSpot and Consumer Research Intelligence Partners
  • People haven’t stopped playing games on iPhones
  • People haven’t stopped downloading games on iPhone
  • The iOS segment of the mobile market is still by far the most lucrative

 

ios-apple-android-market-share-usa

 

What that all means is that mobile games user acquisition specialists and mobile growth marketers can’t simply keep redirecting budget to Android in order to satisfy some arbitrary target or a random CEO demand for 35% growth this quarter. And that they’re going to have to invest the time, energy, and experimentation budget to figure out mobile growth in the new world of privacy-safe iOS.

So we should see budgets swing back to iOS.

And in fact the smart money already has.

One of the participants on our recent 5 Ways to Drive Faster Growth for Gaming Apps webinar just told us that since CPIs are down on iOS, there’s a one-time buying opportunity there that he’s not passing up. Installs are currently on sale, discounted, for iPhone and iPad. That kind of opportunity doesn’t generally last long.

The early bird gets the worm, so don’t delay.

Of course, just maybe … the second mouse gets the cheese.

 

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Mobile games advertising 2021: spend, partners, ROI, iOS 14.5, and SKAdNetwork

What do successful mobile gaming companies do differently? How do the best mobile games apps win? How are mobile games developers attacking the iOS and Android segments of the mobile gaming market differently? And what kind of ROI and ROAS are the top mobile games making?

It’s been a while since I’ve taken a deep dive into mobile gaming installs, revenue, and ROI numbers, and frankly, it’s about time.

The mobile advertising market is in upheaval thanks to SKAdNetwork, mobile adtech companies are buying each other left, right, and center, what we think we know about mobile advertising on iOS and Android is changing rapidly, and game developers and marketers still need to operate and advertise in an increasingly complex growth data environment.

We took this opportunity to look at 20 of the world’s top gaming companies and analyze what they’re doing to succeed in the changing mobile marketing ecosystem.

 

A few of the highlights up front

  • Top gaming companies use 2-3X more ad partners than average mobile app marketers
  • 8 out of every 10 mobile gaming app installs are on Android
  • But only $5-6 out of every $10 spend on mobile app installs is spent on Android
  • SKAdNetwork is normalizing ad spend between Android and iOS
  • ROI looks higher on iOS when organic revenue is included
  • ROI is higher on Android when organic revenue is excluded

 

Mobile gaming advertisers use a LOT of partners

While there are outliers, small scale mobile advertisers who are less successful tend to use just a few ad partners. In the past I’ve seen groupings around four — usually a group of SANs including Facebook and Google — and significant jumps in performance for marketers with massive scale at over ten.

Mobile games advertisers knock that out of the park.

 

gaming-apps-UA-number-ad-partners

 

The median number of ad partners per month varies, but for the most successful gaming companies it’s generally in the high twenties. There are outliers, of course. The lowest we saw was 10, while the highest number of ad partners with active campaigns in a single month for a top gaming publisher was 60.

That’s impressive, but it’s not the highest I’ve ever seen. It’s not unheard of for top games advertisers to have over 100 active partners in a given month.

More partners means more management, of course, so all other factors being equal, the fewest number of partners you can successfully grow with is good. But most top mobile game marketers find they can access efficient growth opportunities better with a fairly high number of ad partners.
Advertisers should look for programmatic partners that can help them carve this path, who are prepared and understand how old strategies can be revamped to this new industry reality and are 100% transparent at every level.

A programmatic DSP (Demand Side Platform) provides advertisers access to incremental uplift enabling advertisers to understand how much value a channel is adding to their advertising. This way, your decisions to optimize your campaigns are backed by data and ROI-focused.

SKAdNetwork is increasing Android’s share of game installs

Everyone knows that Android has significantly more market share than iOS. While in the U.S. that’s simply a 54% to 47% edge (rounded, so numbers can total more than 100%), China is 82% Android, Brazil is 94% Android, and even the richer European countries tend to be 60-80% Android.

So it’s no real shock that eight out of every 10 game installs is on an Android device.

But it is interesting that that percentage is growing, and that it’s driven by increasing spend on Android marketing campaigns.

 

paid-gaming-installs-up-android-2021

 

 

At the beginning of 2021, 77 out of every 100 game installs for top mobile games publishers were on Android. In the last three months, that’s edged up to 80 out of a hundred. Note: the overall number of app installs for Android games is not significantly up (keep reading!) but the percentage of all games installed on mobile (iOS + Android) is. Which means, of course, fewer games are getting installed on iOS.

Driving that is significant amounts of paid app install spend moving from iOS to Android, and that’s driven a rise in the percentage of game installs on Android that are paid increasing to 86% from previous levels around 80%.

 

gaming-apps-UA-spend-2021

 

While at the beginning of the year 54-55% of gaming publishers’ ad spend was focused on Android, now 60% or more is directed to Android app installs versus just 40% or less for iOS. (Note: the July data is limited, so I’m basing my analysis on the April/June data. But so far, the July data appears to be fully on-trend.)

Unfortunately, that spend does not appear to be increasing the overall installs of games on Android. In fact, total game installs on Android are essentially flat across 2021.

 

android-game-installs-volume-2021

 

Which means that so far, we have the worst of all possible worlds.

Ad spend is down on iOS because measurability by traditional mobile user acquisition methods using IDFAs is gone. That ad spend has transitioned to Android because … growth targets must be met. But instead of generating new demand on Android, the new ad spend is simply taking a share of installs that would otherwise have happened in any case via organic.

Of course, when looking at big trends you need to compare them to previous years to see if what you’re seeing is a seasonal event or a real consequence of some major industry change. As I reported in a somewhat aged holiday trends report:

Big picture, the app install cycle is simple: slow in February/March/April, ramping in late spring and early summer, and peaking in October, November, December, with some run-off into January.

Which is significant: the ramping that we should be seeing in the spring and early summer numbers is conspicuously absent.

The caveat of course is 2020. We just came out of a crazy year. We’re in the middle of another crazy year, with COVID and its aftermath (can we say that yet?) still wreaking havoc on people, economies, and natural cycles of activity, shopping, pricing, and more. So take that insight with a grain of salt … but it seems, so far, to be valid.

 

All of which means … we should take a hard, skeptical look at ROI and ROAS

In crazy, turbulent times, it’s worth looking at whether ROI and ROAS are significantly different than before. So we pulled data on D30 media ROI for top gaming publishers.

With organic revenue included, it looks not too bad at first glance.

 

gaming-apps-ROI-D30-2021

 

However, there’s a clear dip on Android and iOS at a very interesting time: right after Apple released iOS 14.5 and SKAdNetwork became a real, functioning, must-take-action thing. Right at the time, of course, when at least hundreds of millions of dollars of ad spend — and possibly billions — left the iOS ecosystem for Android.

For the Android side of the house, that’s further evidence that more dollars were chasing the same number of app installs, depressing organic installs as a percentage of all Android installs. On iOS, while ROI bounced back somewhat in May, April was a huge drop and May isn’t back up to the typical levels of January, February, and March.

Interestingly, when you take organic revenue out of the picture, iOS looks worse than Android for return on ad spend. There’s a number of potential reasons for that, including a larger organic multiplier effect on iOS than Android and likely a few other factors … but that’s fodder for another day’s data dive.

Note:
It’s important to not take the June ROI dip too seriously: since we’re looking at D30 ROI here, close to half the installs are not completely realizing their expected ROI yet and a big percentage are not even halfway there.

 

Summing up: change is the only constant

Hey: it’s 2021. It’s like 2020, only even crazier.

There’s a lot of change happening in the mobile marketing ecosystem, and not every player has caught up yet. In addition, it’s clear that mobile attribution as we once knew it is dead and next-generation attribution is not just a nice-to-have anymore.

It’s essential.

There is no longer one way of generating accurate and reliable attribution truth on iOS. Instead, there’s multiple datasets from a myriad of sources, some deterministic, some probabilistic, some bottom funnel, some top funnel. All of this needs to be combined for the 20-30 different ad partners top-performing marketers are using.

And then next-gen attribution platforms also need to take into account web, offline, email, owned, and any other marketing modality that top marketers are using, whether paid, earned, or owned.

We are not in Kansas anymore.

Why Vungle bought JetFuel: surround sound marketing and programmatic influencer marketing

Vungle has now bought four companies in nine months. And, as we hear from LUMA, there have been more billion-dollar adtech acquisitions in the first quarter of 2021 than in the previous several years combined.

So what’s going on in adtech and marketing?

Obviously we’re in a period of massive change and upheaval. The third-party cookie may have lived to fight another day, but the IDFA apocalypse happened and it’s not coming back at scale. There’s new levels of competition and regulation, and that’s causing huge swings in market behavior that frankly, we haven’t seen in a decade or more. Accruing as much first-party-data as possible that isn’t subject to platform rule changes or regulatory oversight is more and more critical.

How does that all connect with Vungle buying JefFuel? And with all the other mergers and acquisitions in adtech and martech, like Digital Turbine buying Fyber?

To find out, I had a conversation with Vungle’s SVP of Revenue Scott Silverman on Growth Masterminds, Singular’s podcast for mobile marketing insight.

Vungle’s adtech acquisition strategy

Silverman says Vungle’s strategy is to buy companies that help adapt their business to a changing marketplace while building core functionalities that app developers need from game design and development to marketing and monetization.

The goal: one company that can increasingly meet all their needs. In other words, an integrated tech platform for development, growth, even retention.

Adding JetFuel, he says, is also about helping developers and marketers compete in an increasingly challenging ecosystem.

“How can we help them acquire users where those users live?” says Silverman. “The market is becoming increasingly complex. And so consolidating in that environment helps solve some of these tough problems.”

It’s certainly good timing, because influencer marketing is probably the fastest growing advertising segment right now.

 

Influencer marketing is (still) exploding

People are on social media in their billions, as we know. And in a lot of cases they’re blind to traditional ads: one of the reasons why rewarded ads are so popular is that they demand at least some attention. But influencers are pros at capturing attention, and what they offer, when done well, isn’t perceived as an ad.

Influencers capture the lion’s share of the attention of those billions on social, and now JetFuel owns a network for 15,000 of them with 4 billion Instagram followers, 1.5 billion TikTok followers, and 100 million daily Snapchat views.

That’s significant scale.

And scale is good, Silverman says.

“I think that having some level of scale helps give marketers confidence that the partners they’re working with are invested and capable of solving the tough problems that they have.”

Estimated Influencer Marketing Growth YOY

It’s good timing.

Influencer marketing is still exploding, according to Influencer Marketing Hub, which says that while the category accounted for just $1.7 billion in 2016, it hit almost $10 billion last year. In full calendar 2021, influencer marketing is projected to grow to $13.8 billion. That’s impressive, and platforms like JetFuel — which hit our 2021 Singular ROI Index for superior returns on ad spend — makes it easy. Where influencer marketing used to be a one-off business per influencer, platforms like JetFuel make it programmatic.

 

Surround sound marketing and the Rule of 7

This kind of reach — and programmatic access to it — plays into what a Clorox direct-to-consumer marketing executive recently told me about “surround sound marketing.”

“I am a firm believer that creating a ‘surround sound’ for consumers is helpful,” says Vivan Chang, VP Growth at Clorox DTC. “[You are] leveraging influencers, brand partnerships, on top of the  traditional social and Google and affiliates, really having a lot of different places that have similar but maybe slightly different messaging for a consumer.”

That’s interesting for mobile-first companies to consider.

 

As mobile has become both pervasive and normal, mobile-first and mobile-only companies are starting to think of themselves less as apps and more as brands. And in an increasingly less granular, less trackable, and less deterministic marketing world, they’re starting to explore advertising avenues that previously they might have turned their noses up at. In other words, they’re looking at more traditional marketing channels … which are decidedly non-traditional for mobile gaming and fintech and retail app companies.

The surround sound idea is simple: be where people are, and ensure they encounter your brand on the web, on mobile, in apps, on social media, and in outdoor and in-venue options.

The old-school rule of thumb for marketing was the Rule of 7: people needed to see your brand and your message seven times before taking action. The exact number is of course debatable and in fact incredibly dependent on individual people. And there’s no magic to it: someone who doesn’t need what you’re offering is unlikely to bite.

But surround sound marketing including web and even potentially offline and non-digital channels are increasingly important to mobile brands.

The interesting thing about influencer marketing?

It’s increasingly cross-platform and cross-channel … a row and not a column. An influencer might have his or her strength on YouTube or TikTok or Instagram, but as the creator economy matures and influencers see others get canceled or negatively impacted by algorithm changes, most are working hard to develop one-on-one platform independent connections to their fans. That might be email, web, a creator coin (yes, they exist), an app, or a minimally-curated platform like OnlyFans (not just adult content!) or Substack.

And that means that fans see messaging from influencers in multiple places.

 

Content fortresses, picks and shovels, and slightly different strategies

It’s interesting to compare Vungle’s strategy to Digital Turbine, which recently bought Fyber as well as AdColony. (Interestingly, many of the acquired and acquiring companies are perennial winners on Singular’s ROI Index. Correlation isn’t causation … but there could be a connection there …)

There are two strategies that adtech and martech leaders are using separately or together, as they wish and are able, in the current rush to acquire, merge, expand, and dominate. (Or just survive.)

  • Build a verticalized tech stack to better enable the flow of demand
  • Build a content platform that enables the supply of demand

The first strategy is about the tools and the tech: creating, packaging, and offering the “picks and shovels of the gold rush” that Silverman talks about to app developers and marketers. The second strategy is about creating what Eric Seufert calls a content fortress, an entirely first-party way to both create and satisfy demand.

Digital Turbine wants to build a one-stop shop like Vungle: a “fully verticalized and fully integrated advertising stack,” as Digital Turbine’s EVP of corporate development and strategy Matt Tubergen told me. Interestingly, Digital Turbine with AdColony, Fyber, and Mobile Posse has focused on the advertising side, where Vungle has focused on the tools — the “picks and shovels” — that mobile brands need to be successful. But Digital Turbine is also trying to build a platform that embodies demand, thanks to the 600 million Android devices it ships on straight from the OEM: a content fortress.

That’s supremely valuable because it puts you in the position of being able to create the supply that you then fill with demand. Ultimately, it taps into what makes the SANs so effective at hoovering up huge percentages of advertising budgets … owning both sides of the coin. It’s a new kind of (sometimes verticalized) walled garden.

Vungle hasn’t necessarily gone there yet.

JetFuel is clearly access to billions of potential impressions over dozens of platforms. Algolift assists in user acquisition. GameRefinery helps developers and product managers refine games and improve monetization. And TreSensa is a creative production and optimization tool for marketers.

It will be interesting to see if Vungle starts acquiring companies on the content and demand side as well. Because that’s certainly possible.

Vungle was purchased for $750 million in 2019 by Blackstone, an investment company with $649 billion dollars in assets under management. It’s not shy about making acquisitions — Blackstone currently has 95 portfolio companies — and has another $39 billion in available capital to invest.

In other words … there are very smart and well-funded people behind the scenes that are likely to pull the trigger on more investments and acquisitions as the adtech and martech markets consolidate and existing players jockey to provide as much value as possible: to make themselves as indispensable as they can to their customers. And to survive the already-here and still-coming data squeeze.

“We’ve been super-active just in the last nine months,” Silverman told me. “There’s no plan to slow that down.”

“If we find something that we think is going to be the right fit for our company, our culture and our vision, we’ll continue the trajectory.”

 

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Ad spend measurement: 3 ways marketers tackle one of mobile’s biggest analytics challenges

Mobile marketers across the globe recognize the massive importance of ad spend measurement. The ability to effectively collect ad spend data from media providers directly affects a marketer’s success on mobile.

But various events can skew your ad spend data as it travels from your ad networks into your analytics, distorting metrics, destroying the ability to target your most profitable audiences, and interfering with vital activities like creative analytics. As a result, collection of accurate and detailed spend data from ad partners is a non-trivial task that trips many marketing teams up.

It is a problem that Singular set out to solve for marketers more than seven years ago. In that time we’ve pioneered numerous technologies to automate the collection of accurate and detailed ad spend data directly from media providers in just about any form imaginable: API, export, PDF, screen-scraping, and more.

As the industry matures, and other analytics platforms start to recognize the importance of ad spend and ROI analysis, the time feels right to review the various spend collection methods being utilized in the mobile marketing industry and highlight the advantages as well as the limitations of each method.

In doing so, we hope to advance the growing dialogue on ad spend collection in the analytics ecosystem and continue pushing the industry to improve the handoff of marketing data from media providers to advertisers.

 

Overview of spend collection methods

Currently there are three main types of methods for collecting ad spend:

  • Direct: platform integrations
  • Semi-direct: exports and reports
  • Indirect: passing spend data in tracking link parameters (i.e. cost “macros”)
  • Indirect: passing spend data in server-to-server postbacks

 

Platform Integrations

In this method, media providers such as mobile ad networks report rich metadata and performance information through some form of programmatic data reporting, commonly a reporting API. In many cases, networks have multiple API endpoints that may serve different granularities, breakdowns, formats, or audiences.

Advantages

  • Platform integrations give marketers the ability to accurately match the media provider numbers, including cases in which data changes retroactively
  • Platform integrations give marketers access to a wealth of information beyond ad spend, such as additional performance metrics, creative data, targeting options and more
  • Platform integrations are the only way to integrate with the self-attributing networks (SANs): Facebook, Google, Twitter, Pinterest, Apple Search Ads and others
  • Platform integrations pass sensitive data is securely,  server-to-server
  • Platform integrations provide data as quickly as it is available, and therefore quicker than any other method

Limitations

  • Platform integrations are harder to build and maintain
  • Platform integrations must map media provider identifiers to user data, requiring coordination between tracking links and data collected
  • Platform integrations can limit data update frequency – while some networks offer near real-time updates, others offer hourly or daily updates

 

Semi-direct

There are also cases where networks send data in email reports to complement some form of reporting that the API lacks. There are other cases in which dashboards and various types of exports (e.g., CSV via Amazon S3) complement reporting where an API is not available.

Advantages

  • Semi-direct at least gives you data … always a good thing
  • Semi-direct data is right from the ad network, so it should be accurate

Limitations

  • Semi-direct data may not be timely
  • Semi-direct data for one time period could be different in a later export as more data from extended attribution windows becomes accurate
  • Semi-direct methods can be brittle

 

Passing Spend Data in Tracking Link Parameters

With this method, marketers attach a few additional macros for cost data to the tracking links they create in their attribution platform (e.g., cost={...}&cost_model={...}). These links are built such that additional cost information is appended on top of every ad click (and ad impression, when view tags are supported).

While most larger networks support passing spend data through tracking links, many networks do not support this method. In addition, we’ve found that relying solely on tracking links to transmit cost data frequently leads to inaccuracies, which is why we recommend marketers complement data from tracking links with data from Platforms integrations, side-by-side, to ensure 100% accuracy and consistency.

Advantages

  • Tracking link parameters deliver a built-in capability to attach cost to individual user data
  • Tracking link parameters update data in near real-time
  • Tracking link parameters are simpler technology and relatively easy to maintain

Limitations

  • Tracking link parameters have inherent discrepancies with media providers – tracking links don’t ensure a 100% match with the network’s spend figures, and spend could differ from the actual invoices marketers receive
  • Tracking link parameters make it difficult to support cost reconciliations, retroactive data updates and discounts
  • Tracking link parameters are not applicable for self-attributing networks (like Facebook, Google, Twitter, Snap and others) as tracking links aren’t supported in these networks
  • Tracking link parameters make it challenging to support CPM & CPA campaigns:
    • CPM requires impression tags, which aren’t globally support yet, and due to sheer volume/inaccuracies will only increase discrepancies.
    • CPA is harder to support as cost is determined by a downstream metric or a set of downstream metrics, and there isn’t a clear way to define that at the link level

 

Passing spend data in postbacks

This method is similar to the tracking link method, however, instead of using tracking link parameters, media providers can send cost data through postbacks directly to the attribution provider. While we expect postbacks to deliver improvements over the tracking link method, other challenges (listed below) still remain unresolved.

Advantages

  • Postbacks deliver a built-in capability to attach cost to individual user data
  • Postbacks deliver data in near real-time
  • Postbacks offer support for all campaign types (as opposed to tracking link parameters)

Limitations

  • Postbacks suffer from inherent discrepancies with media providers – this method doesn’t ensure a 100% match with the network’s spend figures, and spend could differ from the actual invoices marketers receive
  • Postbacks make it difficult to support cost reconciliations, retroactive data updates, and discounts
  • Postbacks are not applicable for self-attributing networks like Facebook, Google, Twitter, Snap and others
  • Postbacks require development from the network, and not all networks have the resources, ability, or desire to change their ad server to fit these requirements, and as a result, coverage is still limited

 

Summary

As pioneers in this field, we are excited to see the increased awareness of the problem of marketing data collection. This is a problem we have been solving for our customers for over four years, and along the way we have seen the impact of our work: better collection techniques, new interfaces with media providers, and overall increases in granularity, speed and accuracy.

Our fundamental belief is that the best solution to the problem is the most comprehensive one: one that combines all available methods of ad spend and marketing data collection into a hybrid approach. Singular’s customers are some of the largest marketers in the world, and as such, we are held to the highest standards of delivery for accuracy, coverage, speed, and granularity.

Our promise to our customers and our ecosystem is to keep innovating, and tackling the problems to come. In fact, we have some groundbreaking innovations we are excited to share with the world in the upcoming months, and we can’t wait to tell you more about them.

To learn how Singular can solve for marketing data collection in your business, request a demo now.

SKAdNetwork impact: Android ad spend, ATT opt-in rates, ad network growth, and iOS 14.5 adoption

Mobile ad spend is in a chaotic state right now.

Android is increasingly growing mobile app install ad spend over iOS as iOS 14.5 adoption hits mainstream. Meanwhile ATT adoption is slowly increasing as the late majority updates their phones and tablets, and ad networks that took the IDFA apocalypse seriously and prepared well in advance for the massive changes that iOS 14.5 and SKAdNetwork brought are growing market share significantly.

We’ve been reporting regularly on the changes iOS 14.5 and SKAdNetwork have been driving in the mobile industry. Check the recent stories in the series if you haven’t seen them already:

 

Android vs iOS ad spend trend continues

As we reported last week, the changes and uncertainties of iOS 14.5 and SKAdNetwork have driven ad spend to Android, causing spend on iOS to drop. That trend is continuing into late June.

 

android-vs-ios-ad-spend-skadnetwork-ios145

 

In the last two weeks of June, that trendline just extended. iOS has lost another percent of total ad spend to Android from June 14 to early July. The pace of change has declined, so it’s not hard to imagine this trend stopping and even reversing somewhat over the next month as mobile growth experts get their SKAdNetwork feet under their legs and reinvest in iOS.

Mobile spend is somewhat chaotic at the moment — there’s even panic in the space, according to some industry analysts — leading to fairly erratic choices that might not be 100% data driven.

 

iOS 14.5 adoption: now at mainstream

iOS 14.5 is now basically mainstream, as nearly three quarters of Apple mobile devices are updated to 14.5 or later.

And that means that most of the impact that iOS 14.5 and subsequent iOS releases will have on the industry is already happening now. While we’re not yet at the 90% level, almost 70% of people globally have updated their iOS devices to iOS 14.5 or higher.

(I’m currently on iOS 14.7 on the iOS beta program.)

 

iOS 145 adoption rates by country

 

The U.S, Germany, and Japan are all above that level, China, Russia, and South Africa are lagging a little. Some of that lag is likely due to older devices that cannot update to the latest operating system; others due to people who are specifically ignoring updates.

(One note: if you happen to notice that at just over 43% China appears to have barely progressed from the just under 42% we last reported, you’re not nuts. Since this data is based on the OS version reported during an app install, it’s possible that even in sample sizes of millions of installs per country we could get a segment that isn’t 100% representative. It’s definitely directionally close, but if early adopters don’t regularly add more apps, the data could under-report them.)

 

App Tracking Transparency opt-in rates: slightly up

ATT acceptance rates are slightly higher in the past few weeks. Last time we reported, on June 23, App Tracking Transparency acceptance rates were at 23.64% globally, on average. This past week’s data indicates that ATT opt-in is now at 26% globally.

We’re now seeing the late majority and even laggards update their devices, so it’s not surprising to see that they might have slightly different preferences and habits. Ultimately, however, these levels are nowhere near where mobile marketers would like them to be if the IDFA was going to keep its primary position as a tracker and identifier for measurement purposes.

 

app-tracking-transparency-july-2021

 

There are definitely some countries where optimizing at least some of your mobile marketing performance via IDFA is still very much an option. With 30% and up opt-in rates in South Africa, France, Korea, and over 40% in Brazil, this data can still be useful.

The U.S., Germany, and Canada, however, are in the 20% club. Given that you need IDFA opt-in from both the app advertising your app and your own app to enable full measurability, 5-10% of your installs might have IDFA. That’s nothing to sneeze at or ignore … it can be at least one indicator for optimization.

But clearly it is no longer definitive. The IDFA is now one of multiple signals in a more complex data environment that mobile growth marketers need to take into account in order to understand performance and optimize for future growth.

 

Ad networks with growth in SKAdNetwork

SKAdNetwork has been good for some ad networks that worked hard to prepare for the IDFA apocalypse. Among the gainers: Vungle, Liftoff, Applovin, IronSource, and Unity. Some platforms were also up, including Twitter and TikTok.

While some of that might be due to chaos in the space and spend flailing around looking for a place to land, there’s a clear correlation between ad networks that spent time and effort and money preparing for iOS 14.5 — and publicizing the fact — and those who are gaining.

One company SKAdNetwork was good for?

Apple.

Apple Search Ads saw a huge bump immediately following the launch of iOS 14.5. Its percentage of app install ad spend almost doubled week over week. But … it’s a mistake to attribute all of this to iOS 14.5, however, as Apple also released a new placement at the top of search results at nearly the same time, and advertisers probably wanted to give this a try. In about a month, however, that growth reversed itself somewhat, and in the most recent week ASA is up about 20% after adding almost two percentage points of global spend.

One thing we know: SKAdNetwork isn’t good news for all smaller players.

It is interesting and important to note that the flight to mid-tier networks didn’t — at least yet — include third-tier players: the smaller ad networks with less of a footprint and fewer clients. While we’ve often seen at Singular they produce good ROI, they’re simply not as well known or understood. And in some cases they may lack the capacity to soak up additional billions of requested ad placements in literally days or weeks.

 

More data coming soon: connect to get it direct

We are releasing data regularly on the impact of iOS 14.5. Sign up for updates to our blog here (scroll down to subscribe.) Then make sure you drag the email to your priority in-box to ensure you see it regularly.

And, if you need next-generation marketing measurement support, book some time with Singular. We’ll listen, learn, and suggest some options that are working well for others.