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Data, data, data

Welcome to the inaugural Singular Quarterly Trends Report. We want to share what Singular’s seeing in the mobile marketing space as a resource for user acquisition and brand marketing professionals.

We’re also hoping to increasingly share insights from partners as well to provide the best possible dataset and insight.

Besides the trillions of consumer touches in the data from partners, the data in this report is based on a significant slice of Singular’s data:

• 
  Billions of dollars of spend
• 
  Trillions 
of impressions
• 
  Billions 
of installs
• 
  Tens of billions of clicks

Our intention is that this dataset will continue to grow and that the insights we derive from it will expand from quarter to quarter.

Global mobile, at a glance

Everyone is fully aware that mobile is massive. 

Globally, we’re seeing huge numbers:

7 billion

smartphones

8.58 billion

mobile phone subscriptions

16.8 billion

smart mobile devices when you add tablets and more

268 million

new smartphones shipped last quarter

1.2 billion

smartphones shipped last year

300 million

used smartphones will be sold in 2023

This is a mobile ecosystem of staggering size and complexity. And it drives a huge amount of spending, in apps but also in the real world.

$135 billion

in annual in-app purchases

$446 billion

in annual advertising spend

$2.2 trillion

in e-commerce spending

Two vendors, Samsung and Apple, control most of the device sales in this space, but the two players that really matter are Google and Apple. 70% of smartphones globally run Google’s Android operating system, which will get Privacy Sandbox in 2024. 30% run Apple’s iOS system, which has massively changed for marketers in the past few years with App Tracking Transparency and SKAdNetwork.

iOS punches above its weight class because it’s largely a phone for wealthier people and countries, but both matter.

 

Our goal is to provide data that helps illuminate how mobile marketing professionals can navigate this space, benchmark their own first-party data, and find nuggets of insight for growth. Here are some data-driven views on this space that we hope you’ll find useful.

ATT opt-in rates

ATT YES

Just under 19% of app installs are accompanied by an immediate positive response to an App Tracking Transparency prompt.

 

Note: this could grow, as many apps do not request tracking permission immediately upon first open. It could also decrease if people take the trouble to dig into settings and revoke permissions, but that is extremely rare.

Gaming vs non-gaming

Games are more likely to get an immediate positive response to the ATT prompt. Note: they’re probably more likely to be ad-supported and request ATT permission as well.

ATT opt-in by gaming verticals

There’s massive diversity in ATT opt-in rates across different verticals.

Note: educational games are probably aimed at children and therefore cannot request tracking permission.

Music, adventure games, simulation games, and music games are the absolute stars at achieving a yes on the ATT prompt. In some cases, there’s likely a significant upside: free music. In others, there’s a combination of trusted apps and persuasive techniques for asking.

ATT opt-in by non-gaming verticals

There’s also significant diversity in ATT responses to non-gaming apps.

The heavy hitters gaining success include Maps & Navigation, at almost 34%. Art & Design and Photo & Video are also high, as are Travel, Lifestyle, and Weather apps.

Note: the tiny number for Music & Audio is more likely indicative of some major Singular clients’ view of ATT than consumer preferences.

Note: ATT requires double opt-in

For many tracking, measurement, and targeting purposes, App Tracking Transparency requires double opt-in: a yes on the publisher app that is displaying an ad, and a yes on the advertiser app that the ad is for.

Your effective ATT acceptance rate depends on both, which limits the usefulness of getting a positive answer to the ATT prompt.

As you can see, if you’re getting a 20% opt-in rate on both the app that’s showing an ad and the app that the ad is promoting, approximately 4% of your installs are fully trackable via IDFA.

That’s not impressive.

On the other hand, if you’re above average and getting 40% on both, 16% of your installs are now trackable. That might sound small, and it is, but at scale it’s a significant percentage which you can use as modeling guidance for your overall ad spend and optimization.

Cost per install: global

Android – games

• Global CPI: $0.61
• Global CTR: 3.81%
• Global IPM: 5.09

No surprise: casino games have the highest cost per install globally. And, as expected, hyper casual games are down near the bottom, at just 8 cents per install.

Android – non-gaming apps

• Global CPI: $0.50
• Global CTR: 3.18%
• Global IPM: 3.96

Fintech and retail top the leaderboard for CPI globally, while medical and health & fitness app installs are extremely cheap.

iOS – games

• Global CPI: $2.23
• Global CTR: 4.38%
• Global IPM: 1.11

On iOS as well as Android, casino games drive the highest CPI, while trivia and educational game players are cheaper to access.

iOS – non-gaming apps

• Global CPI: $0.70
• Global CTR: 3.55%
• Global IPM: 3.93

Like on Android, fintech apps top the CPI food chain. But retail apps are middle of the pack, even though an installed app costs are not hugely different on the two platforms.

Top 75 countries by spend: iOS and Android CPIs

Hottest genres with the most downloads: global

Android: gaming

The “death of hypercasual” has been significantly over-hyped. Hypercasual is still by far the largest category of games downloaded on Android, at least by players of games developed by Singular clients.

Android: non-gaming

Entertainment, social, and lifestyle apps lead on the non-gaming side.

Note that though fintech apps are among the highest CPI and therefore highest ROI apps globally, they are often aimed at a very select audience and generate a tiny fraction of the installs that the major categories do.

iOS: gaming

Hyper casual leads on iOS as well, with casual not far behind.

iOS: non-gaming

Lifestyle, entertainment, music & audio, and travel lead the iOS top charts.

Key metrics by vertical

Click-through rates: games

Racing and music-based games have vastly outsized CTRs. Casino games are the lowest, at under 2%.

Click-through rates: apps

Photo, social, and entertainment lead the CTR list for apps, while Books & Reference trails at the back-end with sub-1% CTRs.

IPM: games

Music and trivia games are outliers for the most installs per thousand ad impressions, while board and strategy games, along with family, trail, require around a thousand impressions for just one install.

IPM: apps

Music & audio, health & fitness, and medical apps lead in installs per thousand ad impressions. Finance, sports, and shopping apps require the most impressions before achieving an install.

Ad networks & platforms: top gainers

Gained the most advertisers

In some cases, the rich are getting richer. But we’re seeing increased numbers of custom social integrations and custom SMS marketing campaigns. (Note: we’re also seeing increased WhatsApp integrations, so there seems to be a trend here to creative marketing channels.)

Also, Quora is a surprise leader.

Here are the ad networks that gained the most traction with new app integrations over the quarter:

Honorable mentions include:

Gained the most ad spend

It was a tough quarter for ad spend. Spend largely declined on the major ad platforms over the quarter, and only four countries showed an increase in ad spend from the beginning of the quarter to the end:

Spend did increase, however, on some of the nontraditional channels, including CTV, podcasting, influencer, telco or OEM ad networks, and even radio and TV.

1. Veritone (VeriAds)
2. Twitter
3. Digital Turbine
4. Smadex
5. LG
6. OneView (Roku)
7. TVScientific
8. Applifier
9. theTradeDesk
10. AppNexus
11. ZetaGlobal
12. iHeart Media
13. Wondery (podcasting)
14. InMobi DSP
15. Instagram

iOS vs Android vs web: share of spend

Global

Globally, ad spend as measured by Singular is fairly evenly divided between Android and iOS apps with a slight preference to Android. 

Desktop and mobile web take up just under a quarter of spend. Web spend, even for largely mobile-focused marketers, is not insignificant, and could continue growing under SKAdNetwork and Privacy Sandbox.

For clarity, spend is calculated based on where the ad impression is delivered, not on where the ultimate conversion happens.

Regional highlights

Here are regional highlights for the top 75 countries globally.

Paid vs organic installs

Global – all platforms

Just over half the app installs Singular measures are organic.

Android – global

Android is much more heavily organic than iOS.

iOS – global

One reason we see so many fewer organic installs on iOS is app publishers’ massive focus on paid acquisition for iOS, especially in wealthier countries. iOS is attractive because on average it offers bigger financial rewards, per user/player/customer, than Android.

Top 100 countries

Here are the organic vs paid splits for the top 100 countries by ad spend.

The highest in organic spend are generally those that for political, war, or other reasons are not attractive to paid spend. Those include:

• Ukraine: 96.78% organic traffic
• Iran: 87.82% organic traffic
• Russia: 87.74% organic traffic
• Hong Kong: 80.77% organic traffic
• Kyrgyzstan: 80.28% organic traffic

The highest in paid spend are typically those with massive rewards for app publishers who capture the highest-value users, players, or customers. They include:

• Japan: 92.06% paid traffic
• China: 89.14% paid traffic
• Taiwan:  72.41% paid traffic
• Korea: 62.10% paid traffic
• USA: 56.40% paid traffic

Q4 2023 insights: partner contributions

Singular doesn’t see or know everything. (Shocking.)

So we’ve asked partners to contribute insights and trends that they’re seeing which are relevant to mobile marketers. In our inaugural Quarterly Trends Report, that list includes 4 partners:

Here’s a peak into what they’re seeing in the market …

Appvertiser: Growth hacks for 2024

How are you going to beat the competition next year? Here’s some growth hacks we’re seeing that will boost your results.

Paid UA

1. Optimize conversion metrics by maintaining creative consistency across the App Store page and initial user experience.
2. Overcome targeting limits in Google and Meta by using different creatives in separate Ad Groups within the same targeting to unlock diverse user segments.
3. Create new ad accounts to hack algorithms and discover new segments, resetting algorithms for enhanced scalability.

Creatives

1. Embrace the minigames trend. If your game features minigame mechanics, use them to reach broader audiences. Employ creatives/playables and end cards for better performance.
2. Test brand campaign messages as performance messages in non-gaming contexts for improved ROAS.

SKAN and attribution

1. Group similar LTV GEOs together for faster threshold achievement and consistent ROAS.
2. Prioritize early SKAN optimization: optimize early events for better conversion signals, and experiment with in-game starter packages.
3. Combine view-through attribution with click-through attribution for comprehensive ad performance measurement, especially on platforms like CTV or TikTok.

ASO & organic

1. Optimize other language store listings: use titles to incorporate important keywords for better rankings.
2. Distinguish iOS and Android strategies:
3. For iOS: Test icon, poster frames, and 1st screenshot.
4. For Android: Test icon, feature graph, and 1st screenshot.
5. Maximize metadata and invest in localization and culturalization of assets.
6. Implement bilingual metadata in regions using both English and the local language.

Bonus:

1. If you have ironSource playables, get approval to run them on Unity for added benefits.
2. Test hybrid monetization and ARO products for non-iAP focused titles with AdMon or Hybrid Monetization.
3. Implement the ATT prompt for granularity and to compare results with SKAD network data, benefiting network optimization and CPMs for consented users relying on AdMon revenue.
4. Boost your ranking with incent traffic, ensuring good user retention:
5. Check the app types generating ROAS traffic across all ad networks.
6. Negotiate with incentive networks for similar traffic sources.
7. Experiment with short and long-term strategies for top app performance.
8. Use SKAD 4.0’s coarse value setup on Singular, AppsFlyer, and other networks for early results.

AppSamurai: Global gaming economy and monetization trends

In January 2023, there was a notable recovery in the gaming app industry, with installs and sessions increasing by 10% and 11%, respectively. This rebound follows a significant decline. Additionally, in-app revenues rose by 14% compared to the last quarter of 2022.

Worldwide, spending on mobile games reached $110 billion in 2022, marking a 5% year-over-year drop. However, forecasts suggest this figure could escalate to $270 billion by 2025.

The expenditure on mobile advertising is expected to reach $362 billion in 2023, continuing a four-year growth trend. Nevertheless, the projected year-over-year growth rate of 7.5% is much lower than the 26.3% seen in 2020.

Despite a decrease in user acquisition spending in 2022, hyper casual apps maintained a steady rate of engagement, working with an average of 9.5 partners, similar to 2021. While there was a decrease in new user arrivals to gaming apps, the retention rates stayed steady at 29% on the first day. However, a slight decline was observed by the third day, with retention rates falling to 19% in 2022 from 20% in 2021. This trend continued into the 30th day, with retention rates at 6% in 2022, down from 7% in the previous year.

Globally, there’s an uptrend in monetization strategies within the gaming sector. Hyper Casual games are leading in ad revenue generation across six different ad networks. Game developers are increasingly adopting innovative monetization methods, with significant interest in hybrid casual games and the introduction of novel advertising formats and mechanisms, such as Rewarded Playtime aka Play-2-Earn.

The allure of rewarded playtime in gaming is significant, with one-quarter of players surveyed showing a preference for adding games that offer real-world rewards, like gift cards, to their mobile gaming repertoire or even switching to them entirely. The ability to earn tangible rewards through gameplay is a strong motivator. Moreover, if players find a game enjoyable, there’s a 64% likelihood they’ll explore other games by the same publisher, benefiting advertisers through potential cross-promotion and enhancing the lifetime value (LTV) of their entire game portfolio.

A substantial 84% of users expressed interest in starting games that provide real rewards. About 76% of gamers tend to alternate between two to seven games weekly. Additionally, 53% of gamers reported spending money on a single game.

Bidease: Language targeting identifies otherwise hidden opportunities

Expanding and scaling apps into new markets comes with sizable costs. To make the most of your resources, analyzing device language can help identify new markets that share a common language with your app.

One example: MENA.

The Middle East and North Africa is one of the fastest growing markets for mobile advertising. MENA is also an extremely diverse region, home to dozens of ethnic groups and over 60 distinct languages. 

But fortunately, mobile app marketers can still capitalize on the MENA market and maximize reach by localizing their ads in just a few surprising languages.

Although the majority of countries in MENA use Arabic as an official or national language, English is still considered a lingua franca throughout the region. In fact, after analyzing over 76 million unique devices over a thirty day period, English represented the most common device language, making up 46% of the device language share compared to just 35% of devices set to Arabic. 

For apps developed in English, emerging markets like these provide an excellent opportunity to expand their advertising reach without spending on localization.

But it’s not the only opportunity.

Although English and Arabic represent the primary device languages in MENA, French and Russian also made notable appearances throughout the region.

Unsurprisingly, French represented the largest share of device language in former colonies of France, including Morocco, Tunisia, and Djibouti. There, French accounts for 58-66% share of device languages, opening the door for French and Canadian developers to easily grow their apps in North Africa. Israel, on the other hand, has a nearly three-way tie between Hebrew (35% language share), Russian (31% language share), and English (28% language share) as the most popular device languages. In this case, apps in Russian could find value advertising in Israel without localizing their apps.

Craftsman+: most popular ad types by platform

What are the most popular ad types?

If you look at all ad networks and platforms, 2D motion is the clear winner with 55.2% of all ads. 2D static is the second most popular, with almost 30%, followed by 3D motion under 10%.

But what about per platform?

• Google
  Videos and statics are the winning combination, with a focus on 2D motion performance ads. 
  
  
• YouTube
  High-quality trailer-style ads, bordering on CTV quality, especially for non-skippable landscape trailers were the most popular. A lot of experimenting with 3D and higher-budget live-action ads, as audio plays a crucial role on YouTube. Additionally, YouTube Shorts provides an opportunity to repurpose UGC-style content that performs well on Instagram Reels and TikTok.
  
  
• Meta
  Animated motion assets, both 2D and 3D, are in high demand for feed and stories. UGC-style content also resonates well on Meta’s Stories format. Partners often test both unit types to determine the most effective approach. Statics: While rarely used on stories, static ads find their place on feeds, particularly for e-commerce. With the updated Instagram UI, carousels can be a powerful tool, seamlessly blending multiple landscape images to entice users to swipe across.
  
  
• TikTok
  UGC-style content reigns supreme on this platform. However, it’s worth noting that videos featuring rewarding gameplay have shown promising results within the gaming sphere.
  
  
• All other ad networks
  Some ad networks, such as IronSource, run UGC ads. Occasionally, videos and statics can be repurposed for placements on networks like Applovin, Moloco, and Unity. However, Meta, Google, and TikTok are typically prioritized.