LTV > CPI = success: here’s how you do that consistently

Achieving LTV greater than CPI is the foundation of success in mobile growth … obviously. But how do you consistently achieve LTV > CPI? According to AppAgent’s Roberto Sbrolla, with a full app lifecycle strategy.

I recently sat down with Sbrolla for a Growth Masterminds deep dive into successful long-term user acquisition and monetization, and the levers you can pull to build a sustainable and profitable mobile game business.

Hit play and keep scrolling for the highlights:

LTV > CPI: how smart strategy beats viral hopes in mobile growth

Everyone wants virality. 

Everyone wants that mythical ASO-driven organic wave that crests at the perfect time, never breaks, and delivers millions of users. (Cheaply, of course. And top-quality users who monetize all the time.

But let’s be honest: hope is not a strategy. Virality is awesome when it happens, but hard to engineer.

That’s why on a recent Growth Masterminds episode, I sat down with Roberto Sbrolla, Head of Growth at AppAgent and a 15-year digital marketing veteran, to talk about what actually does work.

Spoiler: it’s not luck. It’s kinda hard work.

But it is pretty simple. LTV > CPI wins.

Simple, but not easy.

The only math that matters: LTV > CPI

It’s no big secret, right? 

Everyone knows you have to get more out of your marketing campaigns than you put in. At least if you want to stay in business.

That’s why LTV > CPI is the golden equation in mobile marketing:

“Achieving LTV greater than CPI is the foundation of success in mobile.” — Roberto Sbrolla

That’s the game. But how do you do it successfully, and more than just once in a while? That’s where the strategy comes in: being able to achieve this consistently week after week, and month after month.

You have 3 key options when launching a mobile game:

1. Go head-to-head with the giants
2. Be the big fish in a small pond
3. Create a new pond entirely

Each has trade-offs, and each requires different resources and planning.

David vs Goliath: the head-to-head strategy

Think you can take on Royal Match? Maybe you can. 

But you’d better bring a lot of firepower.

“You need a lot of money because you need to fuel the user acquisition at a very high level,” Roberto says.

Roberto points to Match Villains by Good Job Games as a rare success story with this strategy. Good Job Games went toe-to-toe with Goliath here. They saw what Royal Match publisher Dream Games was doing right, innovated inside the core game mechanics, and carved out their own niche in the matching game space. 

But take note: deep pockets and sharp planning were key.

Big fish, small pond

Most studios aren’t flush with $50 million in ad budget. And even if you are, do you really want to potentially flush it all down the drain?

So here’s the alternative:

Find a niche. Specifically, find and serve an underserved audience … one that the big successful publishers in the space have ignored or neglected. For example, if most match-3 games target women, what about one that appeals to men?

“Chrome Valley Customs from Offroad Games did exactly that,” Roberto says.

They built a match-3 game designed for male players — who doesn’t like restoring old cars —  and found success in a space where competition was lighter and CPIs were lower.

3. Make your own genre

Or, you can just completely invent your own brand-new genre.

Hard? Yes. Rewarding? Massively.

“Triple Match 3D reinvented the genre,” says Roberto. “They created something that wasn’t 2D, but 3D — and carved out a whole new market.”

It’s the riskiest play, of course, because you need creativity, patience, a lot of user research, and a ton of luck. 

But … when it works, you own the space.

It’s not just where you compete … it’s how

Time is another critical variable. Are you pre-launch? Mid-scale? A 10-year-old game? 

Your tactics should change based on your maturity.

“Creating a successful game is a marathon,” Roberto reminds us. “And if you’re running a marathon, you’d better train.”

Understanding your game and your target audience — and what success looks like — are critical.

That means planning from the beginning: understanding CPI benchmarks, knowing your target audience, knowing what monetization levels you need to hit, and crafting the experience accordingly.

Tuning the CPI levers

So: back to LTV > CPI.

Lower CPI and higher LTV is the equation we’re all trying to solve.

One way to attack the equation, of course, is making CPI lower. Sbrolla outlined a few key strategies on this side of the equation:

• Market research early
  Validate your concept before building the game
• Marketability tests
  Run creative tests before dev is complete to test themes, visuals, characters
• Mini-games
  Integrate marketable mechanics into the core gameplay to align ads with actual experience
• Creative strategy
  Find great unicorn creatives that over-deliver: they’re the result of process, iteration, and clarity

“The most impact happens when users see the ad, install the game, and the gameplay matches exactly what they were promised,” Roberto says.

Oh, and don’t forget IP. It can help or hurt.

“IP can lower CPI by bringing in fans,” Roberto explains. “But it has to match the core gameplay. If there’s a mismatch, you’ll pay for it.”

Unlocking LTV: the other side of the coin

The other side of the LTV > CPI equation is monetization.

And while CPI is mostly market-defined, LTV is where your game design team earns its keep.

There are also some big levers to pull on this side:

• Retention
  If people stay, they pay … if they bounce early, you’re burning budget
• First-time user experience (FTUE)
  Remove friction and onboard well to get players to fun fast
• Live ops & social features
  Leaderboards, challenges, and teams drive retention and revenue

“The higher the retention at the beginning of the curve, the better everything else will be,” Roberto says.

Royal Match, for instance, introduced teams early, and that had a big impact on revenue and retention.

ROAS campaigns are your friend

Still running CPI or cost-per-event campaigns? Maybe it’s time to switch.

“ROAS-focused campaigns consistently outperform,” Roberto notes. “They let you turn your money faster, which lets you scale faster.”

They also help you hit high margin goals, not just reasonable margin goals. That’s something too many studios ignore.

“Margin is the silent killer,” he says. “It’s not enough to get LTV > CPI … you need that plus margin to sustain your business.”

We all know creative is crucial for acquisition. But Roberto made a smart point about retention, too: “You target with creatives. Who you attract matters. That’s part of LTV.”

Attracting the right user … one who actually wants what your game delivers, is half the battle.

Final thought: strategy wins. Luck doesn’t scale.

You can get lucky. People do. Studios do. Developers do.

But you can’t count on it.

“If you want to be more than a one-hit wonder, you need strategy,” Roberto says. “And every strategy starts with a strategist.”

In other words, you need someone thinking from day one about market, positioning, competition, audience, and monetization.

Because if you want to win the marathon …

 … you gotta train for it.

So much more in the full podcast

Check out the full podcast on YouTube or any major audio platform for much more …

• 00:00 Introduction to Growth Masterminds
• 00:51 The Importance of LTV and CPI in Mobile Games
• 02:24 Strategies for Achieving Higher LTV than CPI
• 02:41 Competitive Positioning in the Mobile Game Market
• 04:22 The Role of Funding in Strategy Execution
• 04:47 Niche Markets and Innovation
• 13:55 The Importance of Market Research
• 15:44 Leveraging CPI for Competitive Advantage
• 17:18 Understanding Market Response and CPI
• 17:54 The Role of Mini Games in CPI and Retention
• 19:17 Monetization Strategies and Hybrid Models
• 21:03 Campaign Types and Their Impact on ROAS
• 24:55 Importance of Retention and Early User Experience
• 31:57 Social Features and Their Impact on Retention
• 33:31 Strategy vs. Luck in Game Development